Zeitgeist

Zeit·geist = spirit, essence of a particular time

A collection of food-for-thought posts and articles on technology, business, leadership and management. 

Smartphone adoption, not even half way

Diffusion of technologies follow a bell curve, going from early adopters, on to majority, late majority and laggards,  to reach 100% penetration.  This phenomenon was studied and explained by Everett Rogers back in 1983.

An S shaped curve (logistic function) follows suit. The bell curve is actually product of the derivative of the logistic function.

WebCongress Miami 2013 Why does Superman wear his underwear outside

Stacking up the data of smartphone sales from last years, it´s amazing how accurately its adoption follows the pattern. The coloured area on the right part of the chart, corresponding to actual US smartphone sales gives you an indication of the maturity of this market today, well above 50% penetration, versus worldwide penetration sitting north of 22% only.

A similar pattern can be observed looking at top 5 European countries.

This post from the analyst Horace Dediu is the original source for the all data and graphs.

Now you can estimate where the growth (in volume) will come from, geographically speaking, based on adoption and relative audience available.

And this, regardless of manufacturer shares, as the theory demonstrates the different players will adapt their strategies accordingly, within the limits of the S adoption curve.

This theory can be applied to literally any new technology breakthrough; products, services, social networks....

Now, the task is to analyze the underlying reasons behind the pattern. The Why.

There are some theories out there linking human learning processes with it but I suspect there is more behind, specifically about the perceived benefit of a technology within the community (or the bigger entire human colony if you will), and the role of the brand as a fostering mechanism for adoption.

Fascinating food for thought.

@efernandez

credits: Horace Dediu. Asymco

WebCongress US: Why Superman wears his underwear outside his pants? - Tech trends & patterns

Actually this is a presentation about technology trends, patterns and mobility but, given the audience at WebCongress held in Miami James L. Knight center I had to look for a catchy title. Head on to slide 32 for a wonderful graph on Smartphone adoption where you can see where the world is at today compared to US and EU 5 countries. Thanks to analyst Horace Dediu of Asymco.

[slideshare id=28014475&doc=webcongressmiami2013whydoessupermanwearhisunderwearoutside-online-131107133803-phpapp02]

The deck is 51 slides long but there are another 50 in the original draft, pretty much covering everything I could find from real experts around tech. More importantly, at the end of the presentation, slides 46 onwards, you'll find what this means to people, and their reason behind the rising new generation of entrepreneurs.

As a summary, this is the new context we face:

  • New paths in Maslow’s pyramid
  • ‘truth’ is a tweet, photo or video clicked & sent away
  • New definitions of ‘success’: money may not be in
  • Access to luxury more important than owning luxury – Rise of sharing economy
  • Self-realization and self-actualization online
  • (Win)^3: You help me, I help you, we help others
  • Klout score in your resume
  • Managing man-machine symbiosis, key competencies.
  • Global network, global thinking, global objectives. A collective intelligence arising (Singularity)

Consequence of historical events:

  • Reduced sense of security since 2001 terrorists attacks
  • Destabilized economy since Global Financial crisis 2008
  • High unemployment levels – ‘Evil’ corporations
  • Increasing perceived fiscal pressure – need to self sustain or get out the system
  • Pervasive & cheap computing everywhere
  • Tech-entrepreneur heroes – Dorsey, Zuckenberg, Larry, Sergey
  • All tools you need in the web: crowdfunding yourself (kickstarter)

Loss aversion decreased dramatically for new generations, a 'nothing to lose' context fosters entrepreneurship. We'll all meet there.

@efernandez

The Tic Tac Toe strategy - #mobileplatforms

  1. Reblogging this post, years later prediction became true, in reference to recent Microsoft acquisition of Nokia.

    efernandez
    The Tic Tac Toe strategy in Technology - #mobileplatforms twitter series http://yfrog.com/nvapkzkj

    Sun, Jun 17 2012 05:01:19
  2. 2000: The Pioneers
  3. efernandez
    The Tic Tac Toe strategy in Technology: year 2000 - #mobileplatforms http://yfrog.com/obgq3luj

    Sun, Jun 17 2012 05:07:29
  4. 2007: the Newcomers
  5. efernandez
    The Tic Tac Toe strategy in Technology: year 2007 - #mobileplatforms http://yfrog.com/esah1txj

    Sun, Jun 17 2012 05:08:31
  6. 2011: the year of the Fruit, Apples & BlackBerries
  7. efernandez
    The Tic Tac Toe strategy in Technology: 2011 the year of the fruit - #mobileplatforms http://yfrog.com/h05himitj

    Sun, Jun 17 2012 05:09:22

'I am the president of the United States' - a tribute to Bertrand Russell. #toomuchtimeonplanes

(this is an English, US altered version of the original article published in November 2011 that can be found here). Disclaimer:

This post is a tribute to Bertrand Russell, the brilliant philosopher and politician. Any reference to the president of the United States is just contextually serendipituous and a mere coincidence when the subject of this post was created. It is also intended to leverage on its relevancy and hopefully increase the reach of this blog through search engines and content discovery (... at least I'd like to try given poor metrics around here).

bertrand-russell.jpg

Starting from an axiom acepted as an universal truth we can prove Mr. Obama and I are the same person, therefore, I'm the president of the United States.

Don't believe it, do you?

Let's drill down beneath:

As everyone knows, one plus one doesn't equal two always. It is an universally acepted truth the sum of the parts can lead to a greater result (e.g: one plus one, in a marriage, typically derive in a family: three or more from the moment the first baby comes).

Taking this postulate as the underlying logic, the corresponding rationale follows:

 

  • The equation  1+1 = 3 (or more than 3) is possible and true.
  • Hence  2 = 3
  • Substracting 1 at both sides of the equation 1 = 2
  • Mirroring the equation  2 = 1

Now...

If the President of the United States and I are 2 different persons and 2 = 1, then Mr. Obama and I are 1, therefore, I'm the President.

From now on please refer to me as Mr. President or Prez in short, in case you follow me on twitter (at @efernandez).

PS:  Bertrand Russell was a brilliant British philosopher and politician from last century. He became famous when he said the British prime minister was worse than Hitler at that time. Bertrand, using the same rationale as above, demonstrated he and the Pope were the same person.

(By the way, following this logic, if I could demonstrate that I am Mr. Russell, then, Mr. Obama and the Pope would be the same person, shocking, isn't it? ;-)

 

@efernandez

from the series #toomuchtimeonplanes