Zeit·geist = spirit, essence of a particular time

A collection of food-for-thought posts and articles on technology, business, leadership and management. 

Smartphone adoption, not even half way

Diffusion of technologies follow a bell curve, going from early adopters, on to majority, late majority and laggards,  to reach 100% penetration.  This phenomenon was studied and explained by Everett Rogers back in 1983.

An S shaped curve (logistic function) follows suit. The bell curve is actually product of the derivative of the logistic function.

WebCongress Miami 2013 Why does Superman wear his underwear outside

Stacking up the data of smartphone sales from last years, it´s amazing how accurately its adoption follows the pattern. The coloured area on the right part of the chart, corresponding to actual US smartphone sales gives you an indication of the maturity of this market today, well above 50% penetration, versus worldwide penetration sitting north of 22% only.

A similar pattern can be observed looking at top 5 European countries.

This post from the analyst Horace Dediu is the original source for the all data and graphs.

Now you can estimate where the growth (in volume) will come from, geographically speaking, based on adoption and relative audience available.

And this, regardless of manufacturer shares, as the theory demonstrates the different players will adapt their strategies accordingly, within the limits of the S adoption curve.

This theory can be applied to literally any new technology breakthrough; products, services, social networks....

Now, the task is to analyze the underlying reasons behind the pattern. The Why.

There are some theories out there linking human learning processes with it but I suspect there is more behind, specifically about the perceived benefit of a technology within the community (or the bigger entire human colony if you will), and the role of the brand as a fostering mechanism for adoption.

Fascinating food for thought.


credits: Horace Dediu. Asymco

'Unboxing' a 1983 Commodore 64

Sometimes, only a few, we stumble upon things that change our lives. It happened to me back in the 80's when I got my hands on one of the first Commodore 64 machines imported into the Spanish market. Will never, never, forget that day. It cost 75.000 pts, nearly 450 EUR at that time, certainly an expensive device three decades ago, and I happily paid the premium price to be one of the early adopters thanks to my father, supporter and financing entity backing the initiative.

The Commodore 64 aka known as C64, was one of the early precursors of personal computing, running on 64Kb of memory and a 1 MHz CPU. May sound sort of trilobite fossil technology now, but, back then, I can assure you it was an amazing computing device grabbing 30-40% market share of the PC market against giants like Apple or IBM. I became obsessed with it to the point of turning myself into an amateur hacker at that time.

Here you have a footage I shot with my son about the original, no longer working, C64 machine. Actually, the youtube video captured the attention of Ajit Jaokar, founder of Futuretext (a follower myself of his content), who featured it into this great page: Concepts of Programming Languages for Kids.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMEyaww0UDA&w=560&h=315]

30 years later, sitting now in the first day of 2013, date for this post, a similar learning experience can be obtained with a Raspberry Pi, a credit card size inexpensive PC available for less than $35. Alternatively, the Arduino microcontroller can also serve for the purpose.

Bring your kids into the digital world, teach them to code, software is eating the world (as Marc Andreessen very well explained) and schools can't cope with it. You can start here, with codeacademy.

#SmartEmpathyPhone Empatía en movilidad

Impresionante video conceptual acerca del futuro ya cercano, y las redes sociales empáticas. La idea es sencilla, combinar sensores biométricos capaces de medir ciertas emociones humanas con las comunicaciones a través de redes sociales, leyendo nuestras reacciones a tweets, facebook posts o news feeds. Importante el detalle en el interface de resaltar el cambio de emociones (previous status vs currrent/new emotional status). Fijaros en el histórico gráfico de emociones, dentro de tus contactos, puedes ver en que momentos de las comunicaciones sociales ha habido más alegría o nerviosismo, asociado a la interacción social.

En dos palabras, impresionante.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XI687YFvNk&w=420&h=315]

#Laconnetwork: los emprendedores del corner atlántico. Arteixo

"Mi padre es de León y mi madre de Burgos"

Aquí teneis la presentación de hoy en #laconnetwork, descargable desde slideshare

Gracias por todo Franky y a la gente de KIM por el trabajo de embajada.

Nos vemos en la próxima. Update: sera en Junio, habra mas de 100 slides y las compartiremos y editaremos en vivo durante la charla

Laconnetwork 27 jan 2012 @efernandez short slideshare[slideshare id=11292602&w=425&h=355&sc=no]

Videos del evento aqui: "...mi padre es de León, mi madre es de Burgos": [embed] http://qik.com/video/47696258 [/embed]

http://qik.com/swfs/qikPlayer5.swf #laconnetwork 2years, Arteixo

Y por último, la foto de mi padre de allá por el 60 y tantos a la que hice referencia durante la presentación (increible la fuerza que tiene un padre en la audiencia, "...venga, a trabajar!"